Variance Simulator.
See how bad it can get — and if you're fine.
The Variance Simulator helps you understand the role of luck in your results. Enter your win rate, standard deviation, and hand count, and the simulator generates confidence intervals, downswing probabilities, and bankroll requirements. A spaghetti graph shows multiple simulated paths so you can see the range of possible outcomes. The Risk of Ruin formula calculates your probability of going broke at your current bankroll and stakes. Use it to set realistic expectations, size your bankroll properly, and understand whether a losing stretch is within normal variance or a signal to move down.
Why It Matters
- Separate skill from variance — know if you're running bad or playing bad
- Calculate bankroll requirements for any win rate and stake level
- Visualize possible outcomes with multiple simulated paths
- Make informed decisions about when to move up or down in stakes
Key Capabilities
Confidence Intervals
See the range of expected results at 70%, 95%, and 99% confidence levels.
Spaghetti Graph
Multiple simulated paths showing the full range of possible bankroll trajectories.
Risk of Ruin
Calculate your probability of going broke given your bankroll, win rate, and variance.
Bankroll Requirements
Determine the minimum bankroll needed for your stakes at a given risk tolerance.
How to Use
Enter your stats
Input your win rate (BB/100), standard deviation, and planned hand volume.
Set your bankroll
Enter your current bankroll to calculate risk of ruin.
Run the simulation
View the spaghetti graph, confidence intervals, and bankroll requirements.
Make decisions
Use the results to set bankroll rules and evaluate your current trajectory.